Most Tasmanians will regard discussion of hung parliaments as a distraction from the real issues facing people every day.  Real issues such as hospital waiting lists, resources for our schools and better roads.  And they will be right.  These things are a lot more important than a lot of posturing and preening by certain politicians.

However, given the current debate in the media, it is important to spend a short time thinking about the political realities Tasmania faces over the next seven months, because the outcome of the election will be very important to delivering on those services and priorities that are important.

So let’s cut to the chase and deal with the constitutional position and the political realities.

And the reality is this:  Tasmanians need to elect a majority Liberal Government if they want to get rid of the current 11 year old Labor Government.

If no Party wins a majority of seats in its own right, David Bartlett has made it clear he will advise the Governor that he should be sworn in again as Premier.

He will do this even if Labor wins fewer seats than the Liberals.

The Premier will claim that he is entitled to test support for his Government on the floor of the House.

And the Governor will agree.  On the basis of precedent, the Governor will not take sides and will want the Parliament to sort things out.

So Mr Bartlett’s Cabinet will be sworn in, and once that is done, only two things could bring down his government before the election due in 2014.

The first would be if it failed to secure supply; in other words, if the Parliament refused to pass the budget.

This is highly unlikely.  In a hung parliament the Greens will hold the balance of power and they will not vote against a budget.

That has been their stated position in the past and political reality dictates that will remain their position: from their point of view, why should they bring down a Labor Government only to install a Liberal one?

The second thing that can bring a government down is a vote of no confidence.

On that, the Greens have said that they will not support a no confidence vote that they did not move themselves.

The Greens have held the balance of power twice in the last twenty years – in 1989-92 and in 1996-98.  In the first period they were in a formal accord with the ALP.

On neither occasion did they ever move a vote of no confidence in the Government, nor would they support any of the no confidence motions moved by the Opposition.

And you can safely ignore any talk about possible deals between the Liberals and the Greens – it just won’t happen.  

Accordingly, the reality voters will face next March is that unless the Liberals win 13 seats in the House of Assembly, this tired and discredited Labor government will continue in office.

That’s the reality.  Odds are that a hung parliament will mean a Labor Government.

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